Re: OT: Hybrid Escape

From: Jason Bleazard (dml@bleazard.net)
Date: Tue Jun 08 2004 - 18:01:10 EDT


jon@dakota-truck.net said:
>
> I prefer to let technology come into play based on its own
> merits. Nobody had to create laws forcing people to buy cars
> instead of using their buggies back when horses were polluting
> the streets with their ummmm, "exhaust". ;-) Cars were better,
> so people adopted them.

[.....]

Interesting example. I'm not sure if it applies completely, unfortunately.

Note: I'm not saying I necessarily agree with what's about to follow, just
pointing out the opposing arguments for the sake of discussion.

I believe the thinking behind the mandates on electric and alternative
fuel vehicles comes from two things:

- There's a lot more total pollution from car exhaust today then there
ever was from horses
- The country has grown incredibly dependent on the oil supply, and that
supply isn't going to last forever.

Horses were never in danger of losing their feed supply. However, there
*is* a danger that the oil reserves are going to dry up long before we
have developed the technology to live without them. I think the fear is
that people are not going to move past oil on their own as long as oil is
available. It's too easy to sit back and be comfortable with the cars we
have for as long as they continue working.

You said that people will naturally migrate to alternative fuels once they
become preferable to gasoline. Unfortunately, there's a big difference
between what's considered "preferable to gasoline" today vs. what will be
considered "preferable to walking" once the oil is gone. When that day
comes, we had better be ready for it. If we wait until the oil disappears
and then decide "oh, crap, guess we'd better start engineering some
electric or fusion cars now" we're going to be SOL, because it's going to
be a very long process.

Like I said, I don't completely agree with it. I don't remember the
actual estimates of how many years we have left on the current oil supply.
 I know it's not in danger of drying up any time soon. There are probably
too many variables to really calculate it with any accuracy anyway. But I
don't think that there's currently much motivation for most people to
switch away from gasoline to ANYTHING else, no matter how cool or
efficient it is.

I think that's what's causing the legislation. Whether you agree with it
or not, the legislators think that they have to start guiding technology
in this direction before it's too late, because in this case they don't
think it's going to get there on its own.

My opinion? I think that there'll be a gradual process. The oil reserves
aren't going to go dry overnight. As the supply gets less and less, the
price is going to increase over time. And the higher the price gets, the
more interested people get in alternative fuels. Just look what's
happened this spring. I'm not sure if that interest is substantial enough
yet to drive the development of practical cars that don't require dead
dinosaurs. Hopefully it'll get there on its own.

-- 
Jason Bleazard  http://www.bleazard.net  Burlington, Ontario
his:  '95 Dakota Sport 4x4, 3.9 V6, 5spd, Reg. Cab, white
hers: '01 Dakota Sport 4x4, 4.7 V8, Auto, Quad Cab, black



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